Menachem Rose

The melting of Arctic and Antarctic ice occurs two months after a seasonal increase in temperatures, according to an analysis by a recent graduate of the mathematics program at the Katz School of Science and Health. In the paper, “Environmental Change: An Application of Time Series Methodology to Climate Phenomena,” Menachem Rose, who graduated in August with a master’s degree, used a linear regression model to make the association between the extent of polar ice and global temperature. “I think Menachem’s thesis is exemplary in breadth of coverage,” said his advisor Dr. Yuri Katz, an adjunct member of the mathematical sciences faculty at Yeshiva University who suggested that some of Rose’s findings could serve as impetus for further study and publication in leading peer-reviewed academic journals. “He demonstrated proficiency in application of advanced data-science methodology to modern climatological problems.” Rose, who was an adjunct professor of mathematics at Yeshiva University this spring, applied Fourier Analysis and Wavelet Analysis, both methods of isolating different components within a cyclical system, to his analysis of Antarctic ice. In addition to a strong signal with a period of 12 months, which reflects the annual seasonal pattern, both techniques also revealed a significant signal with a period of six months. This feature is also present in carbon dioxide and Arctic ice data, as well as hemispheric temperature. Applying a seasonal ARIMA model, he predicted that carbon dioxide levels will increase to 430 parts per million for the first time in April 2027, up from 411 at the time of the analysis. “ARIMA methods are an effective forecasting method,” said Rose. “It uses previous values, as well as previous changes to data, to predict future behavior. Seasonal ARIMA has predictive power because it takes into account both the previous month’s carbon dioxide, as well as levels from the same season the previous year.” Dr. Katz said the seasonal ARIMA model of the growing concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere is well-known. “Menachem recalibrated the model to the most recent data as of the time of his thesis in spring 2019,” said Dr. Katz. “The recalibrated model was validated by standard methods and its forecast of 430 ppm by 2027 is statistically well-founded.” Rose also applied topological data analysis, which he called an “exciting new technique” that his instructors, Dr. Katz and Dr. Marian Gidea, professor and chair of mathematics at Yeshiva, helped pioneer. While not demonstrating conclusive predictive power in this case, the technique reflects a decrease in Antarctic ice levels from 3.8 million square kilometers in February 2015 to 2.29 million in February 2017, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center. “Many climatological systems are changing, some predictably and some unpredictably,” said Rose. “We need to be aware of the consequences that these changes may have and develop approaches to deal adequately with them.” The Katz School of Science and Health is an academic powerhouse in the heart of New York City. It offers master's programs in five sectors that are redefining the economy: Artificial Intelligence, Cybersecurity, Biotech and Health, Digital Media, and Fintech. In the lab, classroom and clinic, we lead with kindness, integrity, generosity and a commitment to making the world safer, smarter and healthier. Click here for information about the Bright Futures Scholarship Initiative that offers a total fixed tuition of $25,000 for science and technology master's degrees.